The first federal poll of the year finds the One Nation surge redoubling in the wake of Bondi, putting their primary vote level with the Coalition. The first voting intention poll of the new year has been conducted by DemosAU for Capital Brief, and it offers the remarkable finding that One Nation has drawn level with the Coalition at 23% of the primary vote. The further surge to One Nation has also taken its toll on Labor, whose 29% is three points lower than in any published poll since the election. A two-party preferred result has Labor leading the Coalition 52-48 uses preferences flows from last year’s election, which means the 74.5-25.5 split of One Nation preferences in favour of the Coalition is doing exceptionally heavy lifting. Demographic breakdowns will be provided in a full report to be published later today.

Source: The Guardian January 08, 2026 23:48 UTC