According to the authors, the deck of district lines is so dramatically stacked in the GOP’s favor that it will take an absolutely historic wave for the Democrats to win control of the House. In North Carolina, where Republicans control 10 of the 13 seats, Democrats would have to do 5 points better to get one more seat. “Even the strongest blue wave may crash up against a powerful structural force in American politics: extreme gerrymandering.”According to their analysis, Democrats would have to win the national popular House vote by 11 points in order to expect to overcome the GOP advantage and gain more than the 23 seats they need to win control of the House. Democrats were particularly angry about the fact that in 2012 they won 51 percent of the popular vote but only 46 percent of House seats. According to the Brennan analysis, Democrats would have to win 53 percent of the statewide House vote to put just one more seat in play.

Source: Washington Post March 26, 2018 17:39 UTC