President Donald Trump has turned one familiar feature of mid-term election campaigns inside out: Democrats are now more likely to vote than Republicans. But among the smaller group considered likely voters, the Democratic advantage grows to nine points, 50 percent to 41 percent. Compared to four years ago, interest has surged more than twenty percentage points among younger women and women with college degrees. For the 645 respondents deemed likely voters, the margin for error is 3.86 percentage points. In 2006, with George W. Bush in the White House, Democrats won independents by eighteen points while sweeping the House and Senate.

Source: Wall Street Journal October 21, 2018 13:18 UTC