Following a further week of uncertainty in relation to the Middle East conflict, including hints of a ceasefire deal, markets have continued to grind lower, and oil prices move higher. While energy futures markets continue to price in a quick fall in oil prices on the back of a cessation in hostilities, the reality of the infrastructure damage in the Middle East is beginning to emerge. Nevertheless, futures market continues to price in oil falling to $84/barrel by the end of 2026 and $72 by the end of 2027. However, interest rate markets tell a very different story, with two-year swaps sharply higher since the beginning of the month, by around 80bps in euro rates and 100bps in UK rates. This indicates that interest rate futures are pricing in a very different inflation and central bank rate scenario to the one embedded in the oil and gas curves.

Source: Irish Examiner March 30, 2026 15:20 UTC