We believe Thailand's current account surplus will shrink from 3.5% of GDP in 2020 to 0% this year, with the risk of falling into a full-year deficit. For the year to July 31, the current account posted a US$9.3-billion deficit, compared with a surplus of $12.9 billion in the same period last year. We forecast goods exports to grow 5% in 2022 as these supply-chain constraints ease. As such, we expect goods imports to grow a further 3.0% in 2022, with domestic consumption and investment picking up. The potential depreciatory effect of a current account deficit on the baht could provide some upside for the tourism sector.

Source: Bangkok Post September 22, 2021 23:37 UTC