This approach does not aim to predict the future, and in fact recognizes that this is a fundamentally impossible and futile thing to do. Instead, it encourages what van der Heijden has called “strategic conversations,” which allow those involved to have their world views challenged. The hope is that this makes business people and officials more aware of when things are not going according to plan -- and so better able to respond. But the Covid-19 pandemic should not really be a black swan event. Scenario analysis and some of its related underlying principles can offer some tools to prepare for and deal with highly disruptive events.

Source: Dhaka Tribune March 24, 2020 12:33 UTC