If so, the previous calculation represents a lower bound on the odds Mr. Trump drops out. If so, my calculation represents an upper bound on the chance Mr. Trump quits. What about the odds that Mr. Trump drops out, and his replacement loses to Hillary Clinton? That tells us the chance that Mr. Trump drops out and the Republicans still win. As a starting point, let’s assume that Mr. Trump’s replacement is as likely to lose the election as Mr. Trump is.

Source: New York Times August 04, 2016 09:00 UTC