He added, however, that the findings were very preliminary and should not be seen as suggesting "job done". "Rather, they should be used as motivation for us all to keep following UK government instructions," Edmunds said. If that number can be brought down to below one, this signals that an epidemic will decline. Using the change in contact patterns, the Edmunds' team calculated a change in reproduction number between the pre-lockdown and post lockdown periods. "However, this projected decline ... will not occur immediately as there are significant delays between infection, the onset of symptomatic disease and hospitalisation."

Source: Daily Mirror April 01, 2020 11:51 UTC