Discretion won’t get you anywhere with oil investors these days. Conoco has a history here, having come unstuck in early 2016 when oil prices troughed. They would get a minimum of their pro-rata share of a $75 billion dividend regardless of whether Aramco actually paid that in total, while the government would just get their portion of whatever actual amount was declared. Conoco has actually been an exemplar of prioritizing payouts and cutting costs since 2016, yet its stock has languished so far this year. Even Aramco has had to take the extraordinary step of guaranteeing a payout, which doesn’t exactly scream bullishness on oil.

Source: Washington Post October 08, 2019 14:26 UTC