People watch election returns at the Javits Center on Nov. 8, 2016, in New York City. Further, the study ran an experiment testing whether people who believed that a candidate was very likely to win were less likely to then vote. Winning 55 percent of the vote seems as though it’s close to even, despite it being a relatively big 10-point victory. The full study compares that drop-off to the final vote projections of a number of media outlets in the 2016 election. Mind you, the researchers did not argue that overconfidence cost Clinton the 2016 election.

Source: Washington Post February 06, 2018 21:44 UTC