You can think of election fundamentals as factual and research-based generalizations, but generalizations, nonetheless. Across the state and the nation, talking heads and political prognosticators who relied too heavily on election fundamentals, and discounted the polling, got it wrong. Something election forecasters can learn for future elections is to “weight” the election fundamentals. Unpacking these election fundamentals, we can ask ourselves, why is the election a referendum on the party in power? All this isn’t to say that we ignore election fundamentals.

Source: Washington Post December 03, 2022 01:31 UTC