Extreme climate hazards, such as severe drought and intense rainfall that are usually linked with 3 degrees Celsius or 4 degrees Celsius global warming, could occur even under a moderate warming of 2 degrees Celsius, threatening food production, forests and thickly populated urban areas, a study has found. While the Paris Agreement lays down a target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, current climate policies of countries are estimated to put the world on track to achieve 2.3 degrees Celsius to 2.5 degrees Celsius warming. The researchers said that until now, worst-case "extreme global climate outcomes" have typically been described using the average results of many climate models at high levels of global warming (3 or 4 degrees Celsius). However, the approach does not account for the fact that even at moderate levels of global warming, individual climate projections for certain regions can be very severe, they said. The authors show that "extreme global climate outcomes may occur even under moderate 2 degrees Celsius warming for several sectors."

Source: The Telegraph March 27, 2026 00:15 UTC