DBS Bank (Hong Kong) lowered its estimate of mainland GDP growth this year to 4.5 percent from 5.3 percent. The bank says economic growth in the first quarter will be 3.8 percent and will recover to 4.1 percent in the second quarter. Chris Leung Shiu-kay, executive director and chief China economist of DBS Bank Hong Kong, said the service industry accounts for 54 percent of mainland total GDP, 12 percentage points higher than that in the SARS period in 2003. He says a V-shaped recovery in the second quarter in less likely if mainland residents’ confidence in public health does not recover. Samuel Tse Ka-hei, economist at DBS Bank Hong Kong, estimates Hong Kong’s unemployment rate will rise to 5 percent during the first half this year while home prices could drop by 15 percent for the whole year.

Source: The Standard March 17, 2020 07:52 UTC