The baht is expected to weaken to 34-35 to the US dollar if the Middle East conflict drags on for two months. According to Mr Burin, the conflict has already had a significant impact on the baht against the dollar, both in terms of volatility and depreciation. The baht has depreciated by about 4% against the dollar, making it the region's second-weakest currency after the South Korean won. K-Research said war in the Middle East has driven a sharp surge in energy prices, particularly following the closure of shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The government's ability to subsidise energy prices is more constrained than during the Russia-Ukraine conflict due to tighter fiscal conditions, she said.

Source: Bangkok Post March 19, 2026 22:42 UTC