A historic surge in oil prices is exposing the fragility of import-dependent Thailand, compounding pressure on an already weakening currency and raising the risk of capital flight, analysts say. The baht has dropped more than 5% this month, the worst performance among Asian peers. After a strong performance late last year, the baht has come under pressure from a more than 40% surge in oil prices in March, with Thailand especially at risk due to its heavy reliance on imported crude. The oil price shock may drag on the nation’s finances and growth, said Jeffrey Zhang, a strategist at Credit Agricole, who sees the currency at 33 per dollar by year-end. Still, there are tentative signs the baht may stabilise if global risk sentiment improves, including any de-escalation in geopolitical tensions.

Source: Bangkok Post March 26, 2026 13:08 UTC