Scientists have found that slight deviations from the average in the equatorial Atlantic sea-surface temperatures — warming or cooling — have had greater impacts on the summer monsoon between 1975 and 2010 compared with earlier decades. Current monsoon forecasts rely heavily on changes in the equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures, also called El Nino and viewed as a major teleconnection. A rise in these sea-surface temperatures raises the risk of drought while a fall increases the likelihood of bountiful rains. The current forecasts rely mainly on the Pacific sea-surface temperatures and Indian Ocean conditions. Warmer Atlantic sea-surface temperatures lead to fewer monsoon depressions and less-than-average rainfall, while cooler sea-surface temperatures lead to more rainfall.

Source: The Telegraph May 17, 2019 02:15 UTC