"We think the BOJ will wait to confirm the result of the 'shunto' wage negotiations next spring, before moving in April." Yields on 10-year notes stood at 3.91%, having dived 33 basis points last week in the biggest weekly fall since early 2020. Fed fund futures imply a 74% chance of a rate cut as early as March, while May has 39 basis points (bp) of easing priced in. The market also implies at least 140 basis points of cuts for all of 2024. Markets imply around 150 basis points of easing by the European Central Bank next year, and 113 basis points of cuts from the Bank of England.

Source: The Star December 18, 2023 12:03 UTC