And you have one model like IHME being adopted as the national guide.”The danger of relying so heavily on one model is that model could be wrong or overly optimistic. The IHME model predicts the peak is coming in just days, on April 16. The District is using the IHME model as a best-case scenario and the more dire model to prepare for a likely surge. AD“While we hope that our experience will follow a curve closer to the IHME model, we cannot use a single model for our preparation and risk being underprepared. The creator of IHME’s model, Christopher Murray, said many state models assume that social distancing will only slow or reduce transmission to some degree.

Source: Washington Post April 06, 2020 23:05 UTC