This was subsequently revised away, with a forecast on Oct 20 giving Ms Reeves £2.1bn of headroom and another on Oct 31 giving her £4.2bn. Briefing to the Financial Times (Oct 27)What was said:Just under a month before the Budget, the Financial Times reported that Ms Reeves would be hit by a worse-than-expected downgrade to the OBR’s productivity forecast. It also cited analysis suggesting that the hole would constitute “a blow to the public finances of more than £20bn”. What was actually happening:The OBR’s productivity downgrade had been given to the Treasury months earlier and its impact on the public finances was relatively minor. Ms Reeves said: “The Office for Budget Responsibility – the UK’s public finance watchdog – will set out the conclusions of their review of the supply side of the UK economy.

Source: The Times November 30, 2025 16:14 UTC