To describe this mathematically, our model allows for m changepoints during the data record t ∈ {1, …, N}, which occur at the times τ 1 , …, τ m , where the ordering 0 = τ 0 < τ 1 < τ 2 < ⋯ < τ m < N = τ m+1 is imposed. This likelihood is denoted by L(m: τ 1 , …, τ m ). The penalty C(m; τ 1 , …, τ m ) is a charge for having m changepoints at the times τ 1 , …, τ m in a model. In short, a 40% increase in the 2013–2040 warming rate relative to the 1970–2012 rate will be needed to declare a significant warming surge by 2040. Overall, one sees that either significantly increased warming or many more years of observations will be required before declaring any warming surge with a reasonable degree of confidence.

Source: Washington Post October 14, 2024 09:16 UTC