As an economist who has long studied marketplaces and incentive mechanisms, my own answer starts with a simple premise: Prediction markets are markets, and markets are a fundamental tool for allocating resources and aggregating information. Prediction markets also make it easier to extract signals from the noise. Contemporary prediction markets have their roots in modern economics, statistics, mechanism design, and computer science. When prediction markets work well, they can have significant benefits relative to other forecasting methods. Finally, prediction markets have a big advantage in the breadth of coverage they offer.

Source: Bangkok Post February 06, 2026 23:53 UTC