Cembalest’s question is not whether AI is transformative, but whether the “largest moat in market history” is as “indestructible” as the market assumes. There is the obvious risk from China, which is pouring subsidies into building a parallel semiconductor ecosystem. The world remains hugely dependent on Taiwan for advanced chips, a concentration risk that dwarfs Europe’s former reliance on Russian gas. The most immediate risk, however, is a potential “metaverse moment” for hyperscalers. Since late 2022, the big four have spent $1.3 trillion on capex and R&D, much of it AI-related.

Source: The Irish Times January 12, 2026 13:53 UTC