Russia has four areas of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on its banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges. Source: Geopolitical FuturesWage ArrearsThe bottom part of the Russia map shows wage arrears by region. The port regions will struggle because trade is the oxygen that port cities need to breathe. This forces a lose-lose choice for Moscow: austerity or cuts to military spendingThe wage arrears map is an indication that GPF’s model for Russia is accurate. Russia’s Banking SystemThe decline in the price of oil has had a negative effect on the Russian banking system.

Source: Forbes February 23, 2017 00:01 UTC