Tourism Authority of Thailand pivots to short-haul markets to close the gapTourists walk through the arrivals hall at Suvarnabhumi airport. (Photo: Reuters)War in the Middle East could seriously affect Thai tourism this year, with a 25% decline from the 2026 target being the worst-case scenario if the fighting extends beyond three months, prompting officials to target short‑haul tourists to fill the gap. According to a preliminary forecast by the TAT, the worst‑case scenario would involve a potential decrease of 25% to between 27 million and 29 million foreign visitors, from the 2026 target of 36.7 million. If the war ends within three months, the agency sees an 18% decline to 30–31 million, which is the base‑case scenario. For the best‑case scenario, if tensions subside in two to four weeks, there would be a minimal impact of only 2%.

Source: Bangkok Post March 05, 2026 14:51 UTC