High inflation, rising interest rates, shaky economic activity and volatile markets have raised the probability that the U.S. economy will slip into a recession, according to economists. But the range of their forecasts is wide, from a relatively remote chance of a recession — commonly defined as a shrinking of the economy for two consecutive quarters — to more confident predictions that a downturn is imminent. In general, forecasters who say a recession will be avoided emphasize that they might be too optimistic, while those who are confident that the economy will shrink are quick to say the recession won’t be that bad. Here is what some economists, analysts and strategists have said recently about the chances of a recession:DeloitteDaniel Bachman, who runs the U.S. economic forecasting team at the consulting firm, puts the chance of a recession at about 15 percent, “less likely than some analysts would have you believe.”

Source: International New York Times June 30, 2022 05:20 UTC