A power struggle in the Middle East is rippling across the Red Sea and fuelling Sudan’s bloody civil war. “I don’t think it’s a civil war any more.”How are Gulf states involved in Sudan? For some countries, Sudan’s war is an opportunity to advance their own interests “in a rapidly changing and contested regional order”. ”Sudan’s civil war may last even longer now that Gulf states are focused elsewhere. Neither side in the civil war will have the ability to land a knock-out punch.”
Get Geopolitical Futures FREE newsletterSign up now and receive our special report on Turkey, Iran, and the future of the Middle East. Email address: Leave this field empty if you're human:Get weekly analysis from New York Times bestselling author George Friedman and our global team of analysts, plus special offers.
The onshore field, located about 130 kilometres south of Sirte in concession C17, had been shut since 2015 when security disruptions forced several oil facilities across the country to suspend operations. Production resumed on February 28 after the completion of a new facility capable of producing about 25,000 barrels of oil per day. The North African country holds Africa’s largest proven crude reserves and relies heavily on petroleum exports to fund government spending and support its economy. TotalEnergies holds a 37.5 per cent stake in the Mabruk field and has operated in Libya since 1956. The Waha assets are operated by Waha Oil Company, which is owned by Libya’s state oil firm, National Oil Corporation, with TotalEnergies and ConocoPhillips holding minority stakes.
Ladd Serwat, ACLED’s Africa Senior Analyst, said:“Following the drone strike in Goma that killed a French humanitarian worker, the exact drone or missile type and launch point remain unclear. However, several indicators point to likely involvement by the Congolese armed forces (FARDC). First, FARDC accounts for the vast majority of recorded air- and drone strikes in eastern DRC since 2025. ACLED has documented more than 60 such strikes by the Congolese military in 2026 alone, after surging in the last quarter of 2025. Recent activity also supports this pattern: FARDC conducted strikes near Mushaki, west of Goma, on 7 March, while clashes between M23 and Wazalendo fighters were reported in the Virunga area north of the city around the same time.
Creative use of geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) is one way to make this happen. Environmental stress across the Sahel, Horn of Africa, and North Africa is ever-present. The Cipher Brief is committed to publishing a range of perspectives on national security issues submitted by deeply experienced national security professionals. Have a perspective to share based on your experience in the national security field? Read more expert-driven national security insights, perspective and analysis in The Cipher Brief
INTERVIEW: MTN Group CEO Ralph Mupita cited issues hampering digital ambitions in much of Africa, highlighting smartphone prices need to be well below $40 crack the usage gap on the continent. During a wide-ranging interview with Mobile World Live, the executive cited a number of challenges and opportunities for pushing forward digital technology in the region. “The other one is really the usage gap,” he added. “That’s really about device affordability,” pointing to initiatives to bring the cost of smartphones down to $40 or below. To view the full interview, where the executive also discusses the importance of local language AI models, click here.
Network International expands fraud prevention in EgyptNetwork International has deployed the FICO Falcon Fraud Manager solution for ADCB Egypt, introducing an artificial intelligence-driven fraud detection platform designed to strengthen protection for digital financial transactions in the Egyptian market. The deployment forms part of Network International’s enterprise fraud prevention initiative in Egypt and aims to enhance real-time monitoring and prevention of fraudulent payment activity for ADCB Egypt customers. Partnership supports Egypt’s digital payments growthThe collaboration between Network International and ADCB Egypt supports efforts to strengthen trust in digital financial services and address fraud risks as digital payments expand across Egypt’s financial sector. Network International positions the initiative as part of its broader effort to support financial inclusion and strengthen fraud management capabilities among Egyptian banks. Longstanding technology collaborationFICO and Network International have collaborated since 2017, combining FICO’s analytics technology with Network International’s digital payments processing capabilities to enhance fraud detection and prevention services across the region.
Powerfleet, a provider of AIoT SaaS solutions for mobile asset management, has announced it has been awarded a milestone public sector contract to deliver integrated video intelligence and real-time fleet visibility services for an extensive range of South African government departments overseeing more than 100,000 vehicles. The agreement is anticipated to represent a major deployment in the company’s history and is expected to generate material recurring SaaS and services revenue over a minimum five-year term following phased implementation. The contract also expands Powerfleet’s existing partnership with MTN, supporting nationwide delivery through secure connectivity and managed network infrastructure. Steve Towe, Chief Executive Officer, Powerfleet, said: “This award is highly meaningful for Powerfleet and reflects the increasing scale at which public sector organisations are adopting data-driven fleet technologies in partnership with tier one providers. Deployment is expected to begin mid calendar year, with revenue commencing upon installation and scaling as subscribers are brought onto the platform.
Right after annexation he worked as a Human Rights Officer in Odessa, Ukraine in the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission. In 2018 he gave a speech at the UN Human Rights Council about the human rights situation in annexed by Russian Federation Crimea. Previously Mr. Urcosta has provided insights to different analytical centers including the European Council on Foreign Relations, Jamestown Foundation, War Room (U.S. War College) The Proceedings (U.S. He previously worked as an assistant to the Head of the Mejlis of the Crimean Tatar people, a single supreme plenipotentiary representative and executive body of the Crimean Tatar people. He speaks Polish, Russian, English, Ukrainian, Crimean Tatar and Turkish.
TotalEnergies announces the restart of production at the Mabruk oil field in Libya, in which the Company holds an interest of 37.5%. The Mabruk field is located onshore, in concession C17, around 130 km south of Sirte. TotalEnergies has restarted production at Libya's Mabruk oil field after operations were halted in 2015. The company, which holds a 37.5 per cent stake, commissioned a new 25,000-barrel-per-day production unit launched in May 2024. The construction of a new production unit with a capacity of 25,000 barrels per day was launched in May 2024.
NAFFCO–Verona Shelters JV to Boost Civil and Military Shelter ManufacturingNAFFCO Group has entered into a Joint Venture Agreement with Verona Shelters to form a strategic partnership dedicated to developing and manufacturing advanced civil defense and military shelter solutions in the United Arab Emirates. The collaboration combines NAFFCO’s global leadership in safety engineering and large-scale manufacturing with Verona Shelters’ expertise in specialized protective shelter systems. “Civil protection infrastructure is becoming a strategic priority for governments around the world. We expect this partnership to become one of the most significant industrial collaborations in the civil protection shelter sector,” said Khalid Al Khatib, CEO of NAFFCO Group. Through this Joint Venture Agreement, NAFFCO and Verona Shelters reaffirm their shared commitment to innovation, resilience, and public safety.
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The Voice of Hind Rajab made an immediate impact when it premiered at the Venice Film Festival in 2025, receiving a 23-minute standing ovation and seven awards. Nominated for a 2026 Oscar in the Best International Feature Film category, this is her third shortlisting at the awards. So, what makes The Voice of Hind Rajab so powerful? We asked a leading scholar of north African film and film-makers, Florence Martin, to tell us about the film and its director. In a total reversal of classic cinema codes, the star of the film remains a dead little girl’s voice, deprived of a body.
Glentoran Football Club has confirmed Strangford Consulting as an Official Partner and Back of Shorts Partner for the 2026 BetMcLean Cup Final. The Strangford Consulting brand will feature on the back of the Glentoran playing shorts when the Glens face Linfield in the BetMcLean Cup Final at the Clearer Twist National Stadium on Sunday 15 March 2026 (kick-off 3.00pm). The Club’s wider partner network also includes Creative Commercial Interiors as Commercial Interiors Partner, Bodyscape as Official Health & Wellness Partner, Knock Golf Club as Official Partner and Box-It as Official Packaging Partner. Ross Strathearn, Chief Commercial Officer at Glentoran, said: “We’re delighted to welcome Strangford Consulting as an Official Partner of the Club and Back of Shorts Partner for the BetMcLean Cup Final. To see our family business associated with Glentoran for the BetMcLean Cup Final is something that means a great deal to us.
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has launched the DRC GOLD Refinery S.A., a pilot gold refinery in Kalemie, advancing the formalization of the artisanal gold sector while strengthening domestic value addition. Refinery to Anchor National ASGM Formalization AgendaThe project forms part of a national strategy to curb illicit gold trading and is expected to contribute to the government’s target of 15 metric tons of artisanal gold purchases in 2026. Developed through a joint venture between state-owned trading company DRC Gold Trading SA and private company Lunga Mining, the refinery has a processing capacity of 500–600 kilograms of gold per month. Supporting Future Industrial Gold DevelopmentBeyond supporting artisanal miners, the pilot refinery could serve as a model for larger industrial refining projects as the country expands its gold production capacity. Canadian explorer DRC Gold Corp is also advancing exploration at the Giro Gold Project and Nizi Gold Project after acquiring the permits in early 2026.
