Yuanta forecasts nation’s GDP to grow 5.3 percent, following Taiwan-US dealBy Chen Cheng-hui / Staff reporterTaiwan’s GDP is forecast to grow 5.3 percent year-on-year this year, as the nation’s non-electronics industries are expected to benefit from the latest Taiwan-US trade deal, which lowers US tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent from 20 percent, Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co (元大投顧) said in a report.
Yuanta’s forecast is higher than a market consensus of 3.8 percent growth forecast, the report issued on Friday said.
The latest trade deal aligns Taiwan’s tariff rates with those of its major trading partners such as Japan and South Korea, and is lower than the current US tariff rates on China, Yuanta said.
In addition, TSMC’s upward revision of this year’s AI shipment growth forecast from 33 percent to 43 percent is expected to add an additional 4 percentage points to Taiwan’s export growth this year, thereby boosting this year’s GDP growth by 0.64 percentage points, it said.
Meanwhile, the US’ semiconductor tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 pose no substantial negative impact on Taiwan’s economy, while reducing uncertainty about US future policies on semiconductor tariffs, Yuanta said.