Business climate monitor remains in growth modeBy Crystal Hsu / Staff reporterTaiwan’s business climate monitor last month flashed “green” for a fourth straight month, indicating steady growth, although the economy lost further momentum, the National Development Council said yesterday. International research bodies have in the past month trimmed their forecast for global GDP growth, citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, inflation and monetary tightening, Wu said. The index of coincident indicators, which reflects the current economic situation, lost 0.76 percent to 99.69, as all sub-indices declined from one month earlier, it said. Against that backdrop, financial markets might become increasingly volatile, but the business climate for service providers might improve soon on a stabilizing COVID-19 situation, she added. There is a high chance that the climate monitor will continue to flash “green” throughout the second half of this year, she said.

Biden-Xi call likely to focus on Taiwan, Kirby saysStaff writer, with CNA, WASHINGTONA call between US President Joe Biden and Chinese Xi Jinping (習近平) scheduled to take place this week is likely to cover tensions over Taiwan, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said on Tuesday. “Everything from the tensions over Taiwan, to the war in Ukraine, as well as how we better manage competition between our two nations, certainly in the economic sphere,” Kirby told a news briefing. Kirby’s comments come after Beijing expressed strong opposition to a reported trip to Taiwan by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi. US President Joe Biden speaks virtually with Chinese President Xi Jinping from the White House in Washington on Nov. 15 last year. Kirby said the White House has seen some bellicosity from Beijing, but called the rhetoric “unnecessary,” adding that there has not been a formal announcement regarding Pelosi’s trip.

India mergers and acquisitions volume to rise: JPMorganBloombergMergers and acquisitions (M&A) have become an important solution for investors facing a slowdown in India’s equity capital markets, JPMorgan Chase & Co said yesterday. “The Indian market will offer larger size, larger quality and greater scale of investment for those investors to deploy those capital,” he added. India saw about US$82 billion pending and completed mergers and acquisitions in the second quarter, the busiest ever, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. Mergers and acquisitions would be big not only for the next six months but the coming two years, he said. “Volumes will be down, transactions will get pushed to next year and volumes will pick up again in 2023,” he said.

Macronix expects revenue to rise on demand, pricesBy Lisa Wang / Staff reporterMacronix International Co (旺宏電子), the world’s biggest NOR flash memorychip maker, yesterday said its revenue would grow quarter-on-quarter in the second half of this year due to resilient demand and price hikes. Photo courtesy of Macronix International CoThe company is very confident that its revenue would grow quarter-on-quarter this quarter, Lu said. Following seasonal patterns, the company expects to deplete the inventory by the end of the year, he said. Macronix said its net profit surged 52 percent to NT$2.94 billion (US$98.28 million) last quarter, compared with NT$1.93 billion a year earlier. Gross margin fell slightly to 48.2 percent last quarter from 48.3 percent in the second quarter.

Apple forecast to ship 85m iPhone 14s by end of yearBy Chen Cheng-hui / Staff reporterGlobal shipments of iPhone 14-series smartphones are forecast to reach 85 million units by the end of the year after Apple Inc launches its next-generation models later this year, Yuanta Securities Investment Consulting Co (元大投顧) said in a note yesterday. Photo: ReutersDespite no order cuts from Apple so far, the 85 million units forecast is lower than a market consensus forecast of 90 million to 92 million units, given a global economic slowdown and price hikes, Yuanta said. Apple is expected to launch four new models in the iPhone 14 series: the iPhone 14, iPhone 14 Max, iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max, with Hon Hai the sole assembler of the iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max, Yuanta said. Pegatron would be the major assembler of the iPhone 14 Max, while Chinese rival Luxshare would supply the iPhone 14 and 14 Max, it said. “According to our supply chain checks, the OLED panel supply for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Max is stable, with shipments to remain unaffected, and the rumor is a mistake,” the note said.

TIER lowers GDP growth forecast to 3.81%SEEING RAIN CLOUDS: Companies are less confident about their business prospects in the next six months, with tech firms more pessimistic than non-tech companies, TIER saidBy Crystal Hsu / Staff reporterThe Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER, 台灣經濟研究院) yesterday trimmed its forecast for GDP growth this year from 4.1 percent to 3.81 percent, as private consumption was softer than expected because of COVID-19 infections and consumer price hikes. TIER Economic Forecasting Center director Gordon Sun (孫明德) attributed the softer GDP projection to weaker-than-expected private consumption in the first six months of the year. Taiwan Institute of Economic Research Economic Forecasting Center director Gordon Sun poses for a photograph in Taipei on Feb. 25. Private investment remains firm at 4.25 percent, as major tech companies pressed ahead with capacity expansion plans, Sun said. Despite ongoing tech cycle corrections, TIER increased its growth forecast for exports and imports to 13.16 percent and 16.9 percent on the back of a better performance in the first half.

President to observe part of Han Kuang military exercises aboard naval shipStaff writer, with CNAPresident Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) is tomorrow to board a naval vessel to observe a joint exercise that is part of the annual five-day live-fire phase of the Han Kuang military exercises, the Ministry of National Defense said yesterday. It would be the first time that Tsai inspects a Han Kuang drill from a warship since taking office in May 2016. Taiwanese military personnel in M60A3 tanks take part in a drill in New Taipei City on Sept. 16 last year as part of the annual Han Kuang military exercises. Tomorrow’s drill would be part of the live-fire component of this year’s annual Han Kuang military exercises, Taiwan’s largest war games involving all military branches. As done previously, this year’s Han Kuang exercises are being held in two phases: war games and live-fire drills.

WAR IN UKRAINE: Poland set to buy tanks and planes from South KoreaAFP, WARSAWPoland, a NATO member bordering Ukraine, is to buy tanks, howitzers and fighter planes from South Korea, the government said on Friday as Warsaw shores up its defenses. “Next week, we are signing deals,” Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak wrote on Twitter. Polish Minister of National Defense Mariusz Blaszczak, right, watches a soldier demonstrate a portable anti-aircraft missile system during a military picnic in Nowy Dwor Mazowiecki, Poland, on July 3. “We support Ukraine because it is fighting for us, but we must also strengthen our own defense capabilities,” he added. Earlier this month, Poland said it would buy 32 AW149 multi-role military helicopters worth 1.75 billion euros (US$1.8 billion) from Italian arms company Leonardo.

European shares log their best week in two monthsReutersEuropean shares notched up their best week in two months on Friday as concerns over an energy supply crunch eased, bringing some calm to investors worried about a big rise in interest rates and a political crisis in Italy. The pan-European STOXX 600 closed 0.3 percent up at its highest level since June 10, while for the week it jumped nearly 2.9 percent. The data prompted traders to reprice their interest rate expectations as they now expect 105 basis points of ECB rate hikes by December, down from about 120 basis points before the data, Refinitiv data showed. ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir on Friday said the central bank might raise interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points in September. “We retain a cautious view on European stocks as the ECB treads a fine line between fighting inflation and avoiding recession,” UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer Mark Haefele said.

Pandey needs that cash to replicate his online success in the chaotic world of Kota, the hub of India’s test-preparation market. When Pandey showed up in his brand-new classroom, screaming teenagers thronged the online celebrity — at least according to the promotional YouTube video, which has been seen 3 million times in three weeks. The Indian test-prep market has always been about turning anxiety into cash. Not all tutors are getting paid that much, but the business case is definitely shifting offline. Traditional tutoring has a faster path to profit, because its success is rooted in demographics and India’s post-socialist economic structure.

Japan’s inflation gauge rises further‘COST-PUSH INFLATION’: An analyst said that service prices are still not increasing much, so today’s data would not make the Bank of Japan rethink its policy plansBloombergJapan’s key inflation gauge rose further above the central bank’s target level of 2 percent, a result that will likely keep speculation smoldering over possible policy adjustments, despite Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s continued commitment to ultra-low rates. Still, the ongoing gains above the price target pose a communications challenge for the Bank of Japan. Processed food contributed about three-quarters of a percentage point to overall inflation, helping nudge the figure up. It then sees inflation weakening below its goal in the following year, a sign that sufficient price gains will not last. With the central bank hunkering down on its position, the Japanese government has stepped in to help rein in soaring power and food prices.

Five state-run banks raise new-loan interest ratesBy Crystal Hsu / Staff reporterInterest rates for new loans at the nation’s five major state-run banks last month edged up 0.005 percentage points to 1.44 percent on average, as lenders raised borrowing costs to support monetary tightening in a joint bid to curb inflation, the central bank said yesterday. The rate hike came after the central bank last month raised the rediscount rate by 0.125 percentage points for the second time this year to mitigate inflationary pressures. Bank of Taiwan (臺灣銀行), Land Bank of Taiwan (土地銀行), Taiwan Cooperative Bank (合作金庫銀行), Hua Nan Commercial Bank (華南銀行) and First Commercial Bank (第一銀行) followed suit, hiking interest rates for mortgages, consumer and capital loans. New mortgage operations softened by NT$7.88 billion (US$263.4 million) to NT$60.7 billion as interest rate hikes and other unfavorable factors cooled buying interest, the central bank said, adding that lenders also exercised caution and tamed mortgage operations. Interest rates for capital funding gained 0.347 percentage points to 1.905 percent, while interest rates for consumer loans picked up 0.165 percentage points, the central bank said.

Asia GDP forecast cut as China sticks to ‘zero COVID’ELEVATED RISKS: South Asia’s growth forecast was lowered to 6.5 percent this year and 7.1 percent next year, given the economic crisis in Sri Lanka and monetary woes in IndiaBloombergThe Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut this year’s GDP growth forecast in developing regions of Asia as China’s “zero COVID” approach to containing the virus creates ripple effects on regional supply chains and economic development. Growth in China, a key part of the developing Asia bloc, is expected to be weaker at 4 percent this year against a previous 5 percent expansion. Photo: AFPThe bank also slashed the forecast for East Asia — a region that includes Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, and South Korea — to 3.8 percent from 4.7 percent. Economic growth slowed sharply to 0.4 percent in the second quarter, when dozens of cities, including Shanghai and Changchun, imposed lockdowns. Many economists expect China is likely to miss this year’s 5.5 percent economic growth target by a significant margin.

The Liberty Times Editorial: Sri Lanka collapse a wake-up callThe government of Sri Lanka early this month declared bankruptcy, saying that it cannot pay its external debts of more than US$50 billion. The investment and construction partnership between Sri Lanka and China started long before the Belt and Road Initiative. Sri Lanka occupies a strategic location at the southeastern edge of the Indian subcontinent. When people talk about failed Belt and Road Initiative projects, they often cite Sri Lanka as an example. When Sri Lanka sought an international emergency bailout, China faced the choice of whether to set a precedent by canceling Sri Lanka’s debt.

Social life helps orphaned elephants overcome loss: studyAFP, PARISOrphaned elephants manage to overcome the loss of their mother by living in a herd, highlighting the importance of a social life for the species, according to a study. Scientists investigated the consequences of a mother elephant’s death on her child by examining the level of stress hormones in the excrement of 37 young elephants in Kenya between 2015 and 2016. Among the young elephants, 25 had lost their mother between one and 19 years before from poaching or drought. The results could guide orphanages to provide companions of the same age to help orphaned elephants. The study also concluded that releasing groups of orphaned elephants together after they were linked during captivity could facilitate their transition to living in the wild.