ISW will cover subsequent reports in the May 4 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment. [vii] Zelensky warned that Russian forces are preparing to expand their offensive operations in Ukraine, likely referring to the anticipated Summer 2024 Russian offensive operation, and that Ukraine is facing a “new stage” of the war. Pavlyuk stated on May 3 that Russian forces have advantages over Ukrainian forces in artillery and aviation but suggested that Ukrainian forces can obtain a technological advantage over Russian forces using drones. [xxxvi] Shoigu may hope to similarly temper domestic expectations about Russian forces anticipated Summer 2024 offensive operation, particularly since Russian forces will be facing better-equipped Ukrainian forces than the Russian military command likely previously expected. [lxxxii] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces control part or most of Arkhanhelske (northeast of Ocheretyne and north of Avdiivka) and one milblogger claimed that Russian forces advanced 3.85 kilometers wide and two kilometers in depth into central Arkhanhelske.
