NEW HAVEN: I have been in the forecasting business for more than 50 years. Over that period, I have heard the constant refrain that the world is in the midst of "unprecedented changes." This popular trope frequently resulted in equally hyperbolic corollaries: breathless claims that we have never faced greater risks or such an uncertain future, that forecasting has never been harder. Confession: my crystal ball has been cracked so many times by purportedly unprecedented developments that I have lost count. The 1970s was a decade of extraordinary turmoil: the oil shock of 1973 was swiftly followed by the "Great Inflation" and a period of stagflation, setting the stage for the first seemingly unprecedented phase of the post-World War 2 era.
