Strait crisis likely this year, experts say in pollNOT READY: Although China has the capability to set up a blockade around Taiwan, it could not mount an effective invasion, the majority of experts saidBy Liu Tzu-hsuan / Staff reporterA Taiwan Strait crisis is likely to occur this year, US and Taiwan experts say, according to a report published on Monday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. More than half of the experts said they believed a crisis in the Taiwan Strait is “very likely” or “likely” this year, at 67 percent of US experts and 57 percent of Taiwanese experts respectively, the report showed. About half of the Taiwanese experts, 49 percent, considered “highly coercive nonmilitary actions” to be the most likely action Beijing takes in such a situation. The experts said that international partners are more likely to intervene if China launched an invasion, compared with a blockade, in the next five years. Ninety-six percent of the US experts were “moderately” to “completely” confident that the US would intervene in the event of an invasion, while 72 percent of Taiwanese experts agreed.
