Google is winning the AI race – isn’t it? Recent headlines – “Why Google is winning the AI race”, “5 reasons Google has never looked stronger”, “Google is suddenly beating its magnificent seven peers in the AI race” – suggest as much. Indeed, Alphabet’s market capitalisation recently came within touching distance of $4 trillion (€3.45 trillion), not far behind Nvidia and Apple. The narrative changed abruptly; dismissed as an AI laggard, it was overtaken by Microsoft and then swept aside by Nvidia’s surge. Forecasts about who is ‘winning’ the AI race tend to age poorly.