GDP growth forecast cut, expected to slow furtherDECLINING TRADE: Exports are forecast to grow only 2.28 percent next year, with trade data worsening quarter by quarter as inflation is tamed, a researcher saidBy Crystal Hsu / Staff reporterThe Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday cut its forecast for GDP growth this year to 3.28 percent from 3.56 percent, and expects the pace to slow further to 2.81 percent next year as downside risks heighten at home and abroad. The Taipei-based institute blamed the downward revisions on stubbornly high global inflation and drastic monetary tightening that weakened demand for Taiwanese exports. “Despite the slowdown, Taiwan should register GDP growth of 3 percent for four straight years, which is pretty good,” CIER president Chang Chuang-chang (張傳章) said. DGBAS Minister Chu Tzer-ming (朱澤民) told lawmakers yesterday that the agency would likely need to trim this year’s growth forecast due to disappointing exports. A weak New Taiwan dollar is favorable for exports, but would intensify imported inflation and capital outflows, he said.
