In July, Mr Abiy publicly raised the question of Ethiopia's access to the sea. Quoting a famous 19th Century general, Ras Alula, Mr Abiy said that the Red Sea was Ethiopia's natural boundary. If Mr Abiy overreaches, Saudi Arabia may feel obliged to overcome its wariness over the Eritrean President Isaias Afewerki, and support him. If he is serious about a new war, Mr Abiy faces two major challenges. The Ethiopian army lost, by its own calculation, between 260,000 and 520,000 soldiers killed or missing in action, plus 374,000 wounded.
