Recent political maneuvers between Egypt, Somalia, and Ethiopia have exacerbated long-simmering tensions in the Horn of Africa region. Egypt views Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) as an existential threat due to its reliance on the Nile River’s waters. With negotiations stalled, Egypt has signaled it will take any steps necessary to curb Ethiopia’s use of the Blue Nile’s waters. Ethiopia, for its part, has contributed enormously to stability through its role leading the African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia since 2007. If drawn into open conflict by Egypt, Ethiopia may be forced to reduce or withdraw support, creating a dangerous power vacuum in Somalia.
