The INDEC considers that a family is “destitute” when their monthly income is less than the basic food basket. A family is considered to be in poverty if they earn less than the basic food basket plus services, known as the total basic basket. The INDEC reported that the poverty threshold for February was AR$177,063 – an 8.3% increase compared to January. The year-on-year increase for the basic food basket and the total basic basket were 111.3% and 115.1% respectively. That means that products that were part of the total basic basket and the basic food basket soared more than the general prices of the economy.

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Argentina’s central bank is set to hold its benchmark interest nominal rate steady at 75% this week despite inflation gaining pace once more, but hopes of a potential rate cut early this year are fading as prices heat up, bank sources (BCRA) told Reuters and The Herald. It put the breaks on monetary tightening in October, and has since left the benchmark rate unchanged on hopes that inflation, running near 100% annually, was cooling. Although monthly inflation has ticked up since December, the central bank is not expected to make a new hike. An official central bank source said a rate hike debate was not expected to be “on the agenda” ahead of the board’s weekly meeting on Thursday. A central bank adviser told Reuters on condition of anonymity that the rate was unlikely to be raised or lowered this month.

Argentina’s drought-stricken crops could bring in 23% fewer export dollars this season versus a year earlier, the Buenos Aires grains exchange said in a report on Tuesday. For much of the last year, Argentina’s worst drought in sixty years has delayed planting and withered crop outlooks, making life ever harder for farmers in a country where inflation nears 100%. The agriculture sector’s export revenues from the 2022/2023 harvest are expected to fall to $33.39 billion, the exchange said. The grains exchange forecasts 2022/23 soybean and corn production, crops whose harvest begins in April, at 38 million tonnes and 44.5 million tonnes respectively. As recently as September, the exchange had forecast the soybean crop at 48 million tonnes and corn at 50 million tonnes, a sign of the drought’s toll.

That rise, if confirmed, would mark an acceleration for prices after a 5.1% bump in December, renewing the challenge for the Peronist government. Argentina has one of the highest inflation rates worldwide, which hurts people’s spending power and savings with wage hikes often falling behind prices, something that has hit President Alberto Fernandez hard in public opinion polls. Argentina economy minister Sergio Massa said in December that his aim was to reach monthly inflation below 4% in April. A central bank poll suggests 2023 inflation could near 100% after ending last year at 95%, the highest since 1991. The country’s official statistics body INDEC is expected to release official January inflation data on Tuesday.

Argentine officials have blamed organized “mafias” for promoting birth tourism to Russian mothers-to-be after several pregnant women were temporarily prevented from entering the country. Since the invasion of Ukraine, thousands of Russian women have come to Argentina looking to get their children citizenship. Russians can travel to Argentina without a visa, where all newborns are granted citizenship automatically, making it an attractive destination for so-called birth tourism. Last Friday, six pregnant Russian women said that they were being held at the border in Ezeiza airport, unable to enter the country after immigration officials accused them of being “fake tourists”. “It’s a cruel, inhumane, degrading treatment to pregnant women who are traveling by themselves,” he said, adding that women who had come with their partners were not stopped at the airport.

Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro said on Saturday he plans to return to Brazil “in the coming weeks,” after having spent more than a month in the United States. Bolsonaro flew to Florida two days before incumbent Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was sworn in as the new president on Jan 1, and later applied for a six-month tourist visa to continue his stay in the United States. “There is no place like home … We know Brazil is a fantastic country,” Bolsonaro told a gathering of Brazilians in Boca Raton, a video posted online by broadcaster CNN showed. “I also want to return to Brazil. I intend to return to Brazil in the coming weeks.”Brazil’s Supreme Court has agreed to open an investigation into Bolsonaro for allegedly encouraging anti-democratic protests that ended in the storming of government buildings by his supporters in Brasilia.

It is the worst violence in Peru in two decades and threatens to destabilize one of region’s most reliable economies. Armas’ comments come a day after the central bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 7.75%, making it the first time since the second half of 2021 that the bank did not hike its rate. On Thursday, the International Monetary Fund called inflation Peru’s most immediate policy challenge, in a statement following a staff visit to the country. Armas highlighted that inflation was seen to be on a “downward” trend, with January’s figures slightly better than expected. The bank now forecasts inflation for early 2024 to reach 4.62%, above the previous forecast of 4.3%.

The local grain futures market is already assuming that the government will launch a renewed soy dollar in July, or another mechanism to speed up the entry of fresh dollars. It comes as drought continues to reduce soy harvest forecasts, with the liquidation of foreign currency for the first two months of the year expected to be the lowest since 2007. May is traditionally one of the strongest months for the inflow of foreign currency from the soybean harvest. In parallel, available soy from last season is also increasing its value in the local market. Projections of future foreign currency income in 2023 from agricultural exports is US$47 billion, a setback of more than US$13 billion compared to last year.

Argentina’s state-run oil company, YPF, signed yesterday a memorandum of understanding for hydrocarbon cooperation with Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC), India’s biggest oil and gas company. The Argentine company also announced that it would seek US$1 billion in financing for investments in Vaca Muerta. According to YPF, the agreement seeks to improve cooperation between the two companies in the sector, including collaboration in the exploration and development of oil and gas. The memorandum was signed during that event with the presence of India’s Oil and Gas Minister, Shri Hardeep S Puri, ONGC’s authorities, and YPF chairman Pablo González. “Our external funding goal is around US$1 billion, with a first round in Argentina we secured US$300 million,” said YPF head Pablo González.

Rainfall over the past few days has improved the conditions of planted soybeans and corn, especially in plantations that were sowed later. Soy sowing was finally completed this week, with some 16.2 million hectares planted, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange’s latest survey. At the same time, water conditions also improved, with 47% of the planted area reportedly in adequate or optional conditions. Some 56% of the second-batch soy area is currently reporting poor or regular crop conditions and the central-eastern area of Entre Ríos is the hardest-hit region. This represents 7.5 million tons less than the previous season, which reached 52 million tons.

The government will launch the second stage of the Precios Justos (Fair Prices) price control agreement today, which will allow companies to mark up prices by 3.2% a month. The new stage will maintain the price freeze on those 2000 products –a list that can, and probably will, be modified. The list of items whose price rises are controlled will be expanded to 52,000 products, and the allowable monthly price rise will be reduced from 4% to 3.2%. According to official sources, 482 companies have joined Fair Prices, and 50 more could do so today. According to official sources, no major supply issues were encountered and compliance levels surpass 80%.