Since the start of the war in the Gaza Strip, Iran’s government has sounded bullish, even triumphalist notes. The war has bogged down its chief regional foe, Israel, in a protracted and perhaps unwinnable conflict. Yet for Tehran, the ongoing conflict may not end in anything like the clear-cut victory it has already claimed. Hezbollah—Tehran’s most capable ally—has lobbed missiles at Israel, but it has not sparked an all-out war on the country’s northern border. The overall message is clear: Iran can cause chaos, but it is not strong enough to go on a real offensive.
