The third major player in this election is the economy, which has shaped both campaigns’ narratives and kept the race on a razor’s edge. Trump has said he would push through an array of tax cuts and tariffs, while painting a darker picture of the economy. The interplay between robust growth and high prices might be a major reason why polls show the election as a tossup. The first is the per capita growth rate of real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product in the three quarters before the election. The more growth the economy has delivered over the election year, the better it is for the incumbent party’s candidate.
