North Korea in recent months has ramped up tests of short-range missiles designed to defeat missile defenses in the region. Nam said North Korea would time the test to maximize its political effect, with South Korean presidential elections scheduled in March and President Joe Biden facing crucial midterm elections in November. “Externally, North Korea is trying to make a statement that it will continue to go its own way regardless of sanctions. Experts say a major COVID-19 outbreak would have devastating consequences because of North Korea’s poor health care system, and could even trigger instability. For decades, North Korea has mastered the art of brinkmanship, manufacturing diplomatic crises with weapons tests and threats before offering negotiations aimed at extracting concessions.